The Premiership Quarter

2025 will be a year that in football terms might be described as the “premiership quarter” – a year that will shape and define the next state election, likely to be held sometime in 2026.

There won’t be a state election this year, because Labor have worked out that prematurely bringing on a no-confidence vote will result in either the disastrous outcome of them being asked by the Governor to form government with the Greens; or alternatively an election that on all the empirical polling evidence would result in a similar outcome.

So instead, Labor will seek to use this year to continue to drag the Government down while simultaneously building their primary vote to where it needs to be to have any chance of forming government without the support of the Greens (c. 40 per cent/15 seats).

For their part, the Government needs to use this year to address the major issues currently dragging its support – the TT Line Ferry Fiasco; the Macquarie Point Stadium, and the budget mess. 

THE FERRY FIASCO

This mess is being slowly unravelled but the big challenge remains, what to do with the two new Spirits until appropriate docking facilities are available in late 2026 at the earliest?

Spirit IV is currently burning a $24,000 per week hole in the Tasmanian taxpayers’ pocket while warehoused in Scotland. If the ship can’t be leased in the coming two months, then it needs to be brought home, ASAP.

Don’t hide it, be proud of it. It’s a fantastic new vessel that should be showcased to all Tasmanians.

Surely it is not beyond the wit of the experts at TT Line and TasPorts to find a way to put this vessel to some form of productive work here, even if for non-vehicular passengers only?

As for Spirit V – well, the Government should be doing everything they can to slow its construction down. It’s not their problem until it leaves the shipyard.

THE STADIUM

The damning Gruen Report released last week put an official stamp on what everyone already knew: the Macquarie Point Stadium is ill-conceived, and will go massively over its current budget.

But nor should the report be over-read. Contrary to mainstream reporting, Gruen doesn’t directly say that the Stadium is on the wrong site. And importantly, he doesn’t actually back the Paul Lennon owned so-called “Stadium 2.0” concept.

Speaking of this proposal, despite appearing on every measure to be technically, practically and financially unfeasible (everyone is cool with dumping half of the Domain into the Derwent River, right?), Stadium 2.0 has been latched onto by opponents of the Stadium as a practical “alternative”.

In many respects, this is reminiscent of the Tamar Valley Pulp Mill debate 20 years ago where opponents of the pulp mill instead backed the non-existent Hampshire “alternative”, using it as a stalking horse to muddy the waters and kill the actual pulp mill project entirely.

There is only one real Stadium proposal – the Government’s. Stadium supporters would be well advised to stop any flirtation they might be having with the 2.0 concept if they truly wish a stadium to be built in southern Tasmania.

THE BUDGET

Hot on the heels of Standards and Poor’s  late last year revising its Tasmanian credit outlook from “stable” to “negative”, one of the most disturbing aspects of the Gruen report was reference to the possibility of a credit downgrade for Tasmania.

The Government needs to stop pretending that everything is okay with the budget (it’s not), and instead actively talk up the problem, which would give them the licence they need to take corrective action.

No, this doesn’t mean higher taxes, which are anathema to Liberal values (cc Saul Eslake and Ruth Forrest MLC); nor does it mean “cuts” which wouldn’t get the support of the Parliament, although it does mean firmly clamping down on new expenditure.

More boldly, the Government should consider proposing the sale of one or more of its existing GBE/SOC assets. Given the Ferry Fiasco, there has never been a better time to consider such sales.

A good start might be the state-owned insurer, the Motor Accidents Insurance Board, which would be worth a pretty penny. Why exactly is the Tasmanian Government owning and running an insurance company?

And, as I have stated ad nauseum before, the Government should look to take action to rein in the ballooning too generous superannuation scheme for long-retired public servants, which is costing the budget around $400 million a year.

A debt which is now forecast to last until around 2080 but would have been extinguished in just three years time had not successive Labor and Labor/Green Governments of Lennon, Bartlett and Giddings first extended the timeframe, and then raided the fund.

Sure, Labor would likely oppose both measures. But what is their alternative to fixing the budget – higher taxes.

These are the major knowns the Government needs to tackle in the year ahead. 

With apologies to Donald Rumsfeld, there remain of course the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns.

For example, what is the future intent of former Deputy Premier and Treasurer Michael Ferguson? Particularly after a recent not-so-cryptic Facebook post where he approvingly quoted George Washington on not taking the easy way, versus the more difficult (but virtuous) hard way. 

And what are the plans of the ambitious Eric Abetz? He didn’t return to politics to be a mere Minister.

Perhaps a more accurate description of the year ahead for Premier Rockliff would come from former British PM Harold Macmillan, who when asked the greatest challenges a statesman faces: “event, dear boy, events.”

• Brad Stansfield is a partner at Font PR and Font Publishing, owner of this newspaper, and co-hosts the “Fontcast”, a regular podcast on Tasmanian politics.