CROP PLANTING in the spring could prove a difficult proposition this year with above average rainfalls for all but the West-coast predicted in the Bureau of Meteorology’s Spring 2022 Climate and Water Outlook, though warm days and nights may alleviate this.
The Outlook reflects several climate influences including a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event to the west and the chance of a La Niña rainfall event returning this spring increasing to around 70 per cent.
According to the report, maximum temperatures for September to November are likely to be above average across Tasmania and much of the East of Australia.
There is triple the average chance of unusually high minimum temperatures for the state too.
Almost all of Australia is likely to experience warmer than average nights.
Despite there being an above 80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall in the September to November period for much of the eastern half of Australia, below-average rainfall is likely for much of western Tasmania.
This is due to a likely positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) which pushes weather systems south, bringing wetter easterly winds to NSW and fewer cold fronts to western Tasmania while still receiving below average rainfall.
Many growers have struggled to efficiently harvest last season’s crops due to the regular rainfalls in 2022 keeping soils sodden and difficult to access.
Increased flood chances may further expose graziers to challenges.
Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio said the increased rains and minimal drying times mean people should continue to be vigilant of more floods in the coming months.
“Where soils and catchments are wet and stream flows are high, further rainfall this spring will increase the risk of flooding for eastern Australia.”