If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck...

Pop quiz: can you name the three Jacqui Lambie Network members who along with independent David O’Byrne are supporting the Rockliff minority Liberal Government?

Chances are, you can’t.

That’s not your fault; it’s because the three were elected to the Parliament not on the basis of their own names, but rather as a protest vote largely against the Liberals’ Macquarie Point Stadium, and Labor’s failure to present as a compelling alternative government.

And having campaigned largely as a blank sheet of paper, since being elected the three Lambies have failed to establish a presence and identity of their own.

Recently, the re-elected Rockliff Liberal Government passed the traditional “first 100 days” threshold and it has to be said, over that period they’ve proved a pretty stable, predictable and competent government – a far cry from the rabble prior to the election.

A big part of this – and fair credit to them – are the three Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) members and independent David O’Byrne, who are providing confidence and supply to Premier Rockliff.

Sure, there’s been the odd ill-disciplined comment from the JLN members, but when push comes to shove, the sort of parliamentary games we were witnessing prior to the election from the disaffected former Liberals John Tucker and Lara Alexander appear to be a thing of the past (for now, at least).

But while it’s becoming increasingly apparent that Mr O’Byrne is successfully carving out his own niche within the Tasmanian political environment, the three JLN members are failing to do so.

One of the number one rules of politics if you don’t define yourself, your opponents will do it for you.

Sensing this opportunity, the Labor opposition has begun to describe the Government not as the Rockliff Liberal Government but rather, as the “Liberal-Lambie Coalition Government.”

And the Lambies, Labor say, are not so much the protectors of transparency and good decision making in the Parliament they might try to pretend, but rather Liberal toadies who are supporting and enabling every controversial decision the Liberals take.

So, efficiency dividend budget cuts? That’s the Liberal-Lambie Coalition. Delays and massive cost blow-outs on the new Spirits of Tasmania? That’s the Liberal-Lambie Coalition right there. And let’s not get started on that evil Liberal-Lambie Coalition who are building a stadium at Macquarie Point.

Following the election, correctly sensing the public mood the Lambies sensibly signed up to a formal stability agreement with the Premier. But as a result of the failure to define themselves effectively, they are bearing all the pain of the Government’s decisions, with very little gain of their own.

Under pressure from Labor over their “coalition” deal with the Government, there is now pressure for the Lambies to tear that deal up and walk further away from the Government.

This would be a catastrophically wrong approach which would lead to instability and sign their own political death warrants – just ask the afore mentioned Mr Tucker and Ms Alexander.

Instead, the Lambies should be pragmatic about their position in the Parliament, and embrace the Government by entering a formal coalition agreement.

Sure, there’s policy differences on some issues, but these can be managed – especially given that on any objective philosophical assessment all three Lambies could easily be Liberal members on another day, and no one would blink an eye.

During the election campaign, the Premier ruled out Ministries in his Government for anyone other than Liberals, so that’s not going to happen. But why not seek a Parliamentary Secretary position or two in exchange for a stronger coalition agreement?

Or how about regular joint party-room meetings with the Liberal PLP, in a similar way to the Liberals and Nationals federally? This would give them real influence over the direction and policy of the government they are supporting.

Given the current state of the political cycle in Tasmania, it is highly unlikely that the three Lambies will be able to carve out a big enough individual identity of their own to avoid losing their seats back to the major parties. And if they seek to do so, they are likely to have a premature political death trying.

But as members of the junior coalition partner with the Liberals after a solid four years in government – they have a fighting chance. 

For the Liberals too, such an agreement makes sense. After what will have been 14 years in government, it’s hard to see the Liberals winning enough seats in their own right to stay in Government, against a likely resurgent Labor party.

But it’s a long way from Labor to get to a majority of 18, from their current 10 seats. 

Presumably, they’ll again rule out any sort of the deal with the Greens, and if the Lambies are also taken off the Labor table as the coalition partner of the Liberals, that means Labor will need to get to a least 15 seats on their own to be able to form Government with the remaining independents. 

That’s a very tough ask indeed for Labor – a fifty per cent increase in their representation in one election.

It all points in one direction – the Lambies are already doing the “time” of being in coalition with the Liberals, so why not do the “crime”?

• Brad Stansfield is a partner at Font PR and Font Publishing, owner of this newspaper.