2024 Tasmanian political scorecard

THE LIBERAL GOVERNMENT 7.5/10

By definition, any year where you win an election is a good year. After chancing his arm with an early election at the start of the year due to the constant instability caused by ex-Liberals John Tucker and Lara Alexander (remember them?), Premier Rockliff would have been happy to still be sitting in the Premier’s chair when the election music stopped.

The Government started their unprecedented fourth term confidently, with the Premier quickly stitching up supply and confidence deals with the Lambie Party and independents David O’Byrne and Kristie Johnston, and getting about with his team on delivering their first 100 day plan. 

However, as the year went on the implosion of the Lambies followed by the ever-deepening crisis of the TT-Line Ferry Fiasco, things began to unravel.

An unpopular budget which seemed to do nothing except load up the state with debt, followed by the forced resignation of Deputy Premier Michael Ferguson from the front-bench really tested the Premier’s mettle.

After a fright in the second last week of Parliament when Labor flirted briefly with supporting a Greens no confidence motion, followed by a foolish decision to break a key election promise on the University of Tasmania, the Premier would have been relieved when Parliament rose for the year, not to return until March next year.

Looking forward to 2025, if the Government is to survive the year than serious action needs to be taken to the sort out the ferry fiasco. The Government also needs to set out a clear agenda to fix the budget, or they will be lucky to still be standing by the end of the year.

LABOR OPPOSITION 6.5/10

Another year, another lost election -  Labor’s fourth in a row. It remains a mystery to me why Labor insisted on going to yet another election with Rebecca White as leader. It really was a missed opportunity for Labor who actually went backwards in real terms in the Parliament, and arguably still remain two elections away from majority government.

On the bright side, Labor have finally moved Ms White on and new Leader Dean Winter has set out to reposition his party to the right of centre, after its slow but steady drift left over the past decade.

By and large, Mr Winter has proved a competent and consistent leader, eschewing the politics of grievance and instead focusing on his “jobs jobs jobs’ mantra and backing in the government on key issues such as salmon farming.

At the same time, Mr Winter has doggedly and gradually exposed the debacle that is the Ferry Fiasco, causing significant damage to the Government without allowing himself to be portrayed too much as “Whinging Winter.”

After initially sliding in the polls, Mr Winter would have been encouraged by the latest EMRS opinion poll showing him significantly closing the gap as Preferred Premier, and the gap between Labor and the Liberals the smallest it has been since Jeremy Rockliff became Premier in April 2022.

However, there is still a long way to. In 2025, Mr Winter needs to play the long game, and instead of hot-headed actions like flirting with a no confidence motion as he did two weeks ago (is he really going to govern with the Greens?), he needs to keep building Labor’s primary vote at the expense of the Liberals. 

To win the next election and avoid governing with the support of the Greens, Labor are going to need at least 15 seats. At the moment, if an election were held today they would likely only get 12.

GREENS 7.5/10

After an election where the Greens more than doubled their numbers from two to five, and then their first ever Upper House seat, the Greens would be well pleased with themselves.

Sure, much of this increase was gifted to them by the Liberal Government’s mad decision to increase the size of the Parliament, but hey – they’ll take it.

While perhaps lacking the tactical nous and media cut-through of her predecessor Cassy O’Connor, new Greens’ Leader Rosalie Woodrufff has proven a wily operator.

If there’s to be a criticism of Ms Woodruff it has been that apart from her Deputy Vica Bayley, the rest of the Greens’ team are rarely sighted.

With Labor seeking to lock themselves in beside the Liberals on most economic matters, in 2025 the Greens need to decide what to focus on. Is it their opposition to the Macquarie Point Stadium? Is it a return to their roots and a focus on environmental issues like forestry, fishing and mining? Or do they seek to broaden their support by focussing on more mainstream issues like housing and cost of living – as they did during the election campaign?

CROSSBENCH

Lambies 1/10 - Started the 51st Parliament with three members, ended with year with just one. 

Ex-Lambies 3/10 – Having broken away from Jacqui Lambie, the two ex-Lambies have struggled to define themselves. They appear to be Liberals in everything but name.

David O’Byrne 9/10 – The standout performer of the year who holds the real balance of power in the Tasmanian Parliament – and he knows it. His surgical dissection of Deputy Premier Michael Ferguson was a lesson in political power, and how to wield it effectively. It really is astonishing that in just a little over three years Mr O’Byrne has gone from being forced to resign as Opposition Leader and from the Labor Party, to now being arguably the most powerful person in the Parliament apart from the Premier.

Kristie Johston 5/10 – I’m still not entirely sure who Ms Johnston's voter base is, and I’m not sure she is either judging by her various political actions. Pokies and greyhounds seems to define her political existence. Immediately following the election Ms Johnston was in a position of incredible power and she would have got significant concessions from the Premier on those two pet issues if she had asked. Instead, she wrote an email asking for more staff and a better car parking spot. Bizarre.

Craig Garland 2/10 - When your most memorable moment of the year is being caught and admitting to drug driving, it says it all. Rarely sighted, unless it involved his pet issues of windfarms and salmon farms in the far north west.

• Brad Stansfield is a partner at Font PR and Font Publishing, owner of this newspaper.