Miss majority government yet?

AT a time when the State needs a government prepared to take strong action to address the serious fiscal and economic challenges were are facing, Tasmania has the opposite – a timid, cautious government captive to the out-of-touch bureaucracy.

Partly, this is due to the longevity of the Government, which is starting to look like an ageing 2014 Premiership team who failed to properly recruit. Aside from 2014 Premiership team members Premier Rockliff, Deputy Premier Michael Ferguson, and perhaps Eric Abetz recently back out of retirement, it’s a team decidedly light on intellectual and political firepower.

(Despite all the hype, the much-vaunted expansion of the Parliament to 35 seats, sold as being to attract more talent to Parliament, predictably failed.)

Mostly, however, this government timidity is due to the voters of Tasmania who – cheered on by the chatterati and mainstream media – elected a hung Parliament.

It’s now a little over six months since the state election, which resulted in the re-election of the Rockliff Liberal Government in minority, supported by three Jacquie Lambie Network members, and ex-Labor independent David O’Byrne.

In recent months, the Parliament has become even more fractious, with the implosion of the Jacquie Lambie Network.

During the election campaign, both sides campaigned strongly for majority government and warned of the perils of minority government, with good reason. Mr Rockliff famously warned of a “Coalition of Chaos” of Labor, the Greens and Lambies; and then Labor-leader Ms White similarly talked up the perils of minority government (not that that stopped her trying to form one with the Greens after the election).

At the same time, the Salamanca Bubble and the mainstream media campaigned for minority government, telling us how fantastic a new era of “cooperative politics” would be for our state.

And yet, six months in, these same people were the first to complain about the recent state budget.

We are told that expenditure should have been reined in, and the Government should “reform revenue sources” (which is code for raising taxes, these people just don’t have the courage to say it out loud).

No doubt, the budget is in a seriously concerning position, mostly courtesy of the Covid-era spendathon, and the insatiable, ever-increasing demands of public services, in particular health.

But no minority Government in their right mind was going to imperil their very existence by delivering a “slash and burn” budget which, notwithstanding their supply agreements, would likely have been opposed by the crossbench and brought about a Constitutional crisis and potential very early election.

You can guarantee those same people now calling for spending cuts would haven been the first out of the blocks to vigorously oppose any spending cuts any that actually appeared in the budget – witness the angst and anger over the Government’s modest “efficiency dividend.”

So, apart from forcing the Government to deliver a budget that fails to do the job, what else has this new era of “cooperative government” delivered?

The answer is, not much.

True, Labor did combine with the Greens and independents to force through an industrial manslaughter bill to appease the unions. And, there is no doubt that Infrastructure Minister Michael Ferguson would not have resigned over the TT- Line debacle if the Liberals had held a majority on the floor.

That’s about it, though. No piece of Government legislation has been introduced that’s worth writing home about – the Government is (rightly) too afraid that anything vaguely controversial will be completely rewritten on the floor of the Parliament.

So, while the State’s finances spiral and our economy looks increasingly unhealthy, we’re stuck with a failing budget, and headline pieces of legislation like the Forestry (Miscellaneous Amendments) Bill.

Already, sections of the business community in particular are looking forward to the prospect of a Labor government.

The problem for them is, there isn’t going to be an election anytime soon – none of the independents propping up the Liberals are going to give up their power and risk their own seats for years yet. 

And in any case, even if an election were held tomorrow it would likely deliver much the same result as we have now.

Despite making some credible moves to turn Labor around by ditching his predecessor’s Salamanca-agenda and focussing on “jobs, jobs, jobs”, Mr Winter isn’t yet cutting through with voters.

Silly polices like his recent ill-thought through idea to “ban” pork barrelling by having bureaucrats vet all election promises after the fact (which would make election promises less worth than the paper they’re written on), aren’t helping.

Nor is the fact the he appears to comprise a team of just one – himself.

The history of Government in Tasmania over the past 35 years is that a period of minority government is needed to bridge the gap to the alternative major party majority government (1989-92; 1996-98; 2010-14, 2024-?).

That same history also shows those minority government periods to be very difficult politically, economically and fiscally for our state.

I had hoped that this period of minority government, the first without the Greens being part of the government, would be different.

Now, I am not so sure.

• Brad Stansfield is a partner at Font PR and Font Publishing, owner of this newspaper.